We all know the monolines (bond insurers) are a huge mess. Although they insure massive amounts of debt, they themselves appear to lack the assets to honor those obligations. How best to fix this mess?
Bill Ackman’s recent presentation is highly recommended reading. It has an A to Z analysis of how the bond insurers do business, financial condition, and — go to page 134 of his analysis — a very cogent outline of how the scenario will play out. Spoiler: he says downgrades, bankruptcy, receivership.
Here it is: howtosavethebondinsurers.pdf